PUBLISHER: World Trade Organization (www.wto.com)
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends ahead of conventional trade volume statistics. The latest barometer reading of 99.5 is close to the baseline value of 100 for the index, indicating growth in line with recent trends.
The return to trend follows the record reading of 110.4 in the previous barometer issued in August, which reflected both the strength of the trade recovery and the depth of the pandemic-induced shock last year. Recent supply shocks, including port gridlock arising from surging import demand in the first half of the year and disrupted production of widely traded goods such as automobiles and semiconductors, have contributed to the barometer’s decline.
It now appears that demand for traded goods is also easing, as illustrated by falling export orders, which further weighed down the barometer. Cooling import demand could help ease port congestion, but backlogs and delays are unlikely to be eliminated as long as container throughput remains at or near record levels.