According to Container Trade Statistics latest release, global demand grew by 0.6% year-on-year in June. The “growth engine” of North American imports have almost come to a halt. Volumes are sustained at a high level, but the largest growth rate is no longer present.
Global demand was consistently at a level 10% higher than capacity, from November 2020 to January 2022. Today the gap is below 2% vs pre-pandemic levels. This normalization is driven by gradual improvement of schedule reliability and vessel delay.
Port congestion absorbs the 12.1% of the total fleet for a value of 3.12m TEU, recording a decrease of 0.3% comparing with the week 33.
“Schedule reliability is now trending upwards: July 2022 was the third consecutive month that schedule reliability improved M/M. With the July 2022 schedule reliability figure of 40.5%, it is now up 5.0 percentage points Y/Y, which is the second time we have seen a Y/Y improvement since December 2019 (the first being June 2022).
Bunker price is going down, and also the spread between the VLSFO and IFO380. Zero-carbon fuels will cost 2.5 to 4.0 times as much as conventional VLSFO.
By monitoring the rate trends of the last few weeks, we can state that from a rate perspective, market is turning conditions are favoring shippers again. However, congestion, delays, labor disputes, geopolitical situation still represent troubles for the industry.