DEMAND
- Global container volumes in November 2025 reached 16.6m TEUs, up 7% YoY, lifting Jan–Nov volumes to +5% vs 2024.
- Exports were strongest from Southeast Asia, the ISC, and the Middle East, while NEUR and Mexico lagged; Far East–North America exports remained weak.
- Imports grew most in the ISC, South & Central America, Africa, and the Middle East, with declines limited to North America.
PORT CONGESTION
- Global congestion is worsening: As of Week 2, over 9% of the global fleet is at anchorage.
- Operational conditions are mixed: Most ports remain fluid, but vessel bunching in parts of Asia, winter weather impacts in Europe, persistent congestion across several African ports, and localized delays in the Americas are creating selective disruption rather than system-wide gridlock.
SCHEDULE RELIABILITY
- November 2025 global schedule reliability improved MoM to 64.1% and stayed clearly higher YoY; average delays eased.
- Maersk led at 78%; most carriers clustered around 50–60%; ZIM ranked lowest.
- Gemini outperformed all alliances at 88%, while Premier Alliance remained the weakest.
- Asia–North America lanes weakened MoM, while Europe–Oceania continued to underperform YoY.
CAPACITY
- As of Jan 2026, the global fleet grew 7% YoY to 33.5m TEUs, with heavy 2025 deliveries and minimal scrapping.
- 2025 ordering hit a record 671 ships (5.3m TEUs), lifting the orderbook to 34% of the fleet. Charter markets remain firm.Supply–demand imbalance points to losses from Q1 2026; uncertainty remains around Suez returns.
- Ahead of CNY 2026, carriers are proactively managing East–West capacity to align with seasonal demand, while congestion, particularly in Europe, continues to constrain effective capacity.
RATE LEVELS
- Spot rates remain sharply lower YoY despite a seasonal rebound: Spot rates entered early 2026 about 34% YoY lower (SCFI, WCI). While Dec–Jan pre-CNY seasonality lifted rates (+18% MoM SCFI, +16% WCI), gains are largely seasonal and uneven across trades.
- Asia–Europe rates surged into early January but now appear to have peaked, with carriers rolling back mid-January increases; Transpacific indices remain firm but actual market rates have softened. Elsewhere, excess capacity and weak demand are limiting GRIs.
BUNKER / ENVIRONMENT
- In 2025, bunker prices peaked in June and then declined steadily, ending the year lower across all fuels, with softness likely continuing into early 2026.
- HSFO and VLSFO fell the most globally; MGO less; the scrubber spread stayed below USD 100/MT, favoring VLSFO short term despite continued scrubber uptake.
- The Mediterranean ECA from May 1, 2025 is shifting demand toward MGO, ULSFO, and LNG, while methanol grows slowly from a small base.