GLOBAL DEMAND
Global demand in the first eleven months of 2024 was up 6.8% yearover-year, with May and August both surpassing the 16m TEU mark, which had never happened before. Demand remains healthy at least until Lunar New Year.
PORT CONGESTION
Congestion, slightly eased in mid-December, increased again due to the CNY cargo rush. Europe and North America experiencing severe delays and disruptions caused by weather, labor shortages, and high cargo volumes. Asia faces moderate delays in key ports.
SCHEDULE RELIABILITY
In November 2024, global schedule reliability improved by 4.1% MoM to 54.8%, the highest level of the year, but was still 7.0% lower YoY; Maersk led the top-13 carriers with 61.9% reliability, the only carrier above 60%. MSC followed at 54.8%, while Wan Hai ranked lowest at 47.3%.
CAPACITY
Fleet growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025, less than half the growth in 2024. As long as diversions around Africa continue, capacity will remain tight but will be eased by new deliveries. Service disruptions are anticipated as alliances transition to their new configurations, primarily affecting East-West trade routes.
RATES LEVELS
As of 16 Jan, Drewry decreased 3% to $3,855 per 40ft container, 171% more than the average $1,420 in 2019 (pre-pandemic). SCFI decreased now 4.9% lower than last year. Market sentiment has turned negative, with further rate cuts expected in the next 4 weeks.
BUNKER AND SUSTAINABILITY
Base bunker prices are expected to decline in 2025; however, carriers will be required to surrender 70% of their emissions under the EU Emission Trading System starting in January, with additional ETS surcharges anticipated in 2025.