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Based on CTS latest data, the growth rate in November was 8.4% Y/Y, down slightly from a growth of 10.7% Y/Y in September and 9.3% Y/Y in October. We don’t expect the red Sea situation to affect the demand.

Current congestion index relatively stable. However, the longer voyages for diverted services could bring to some port congestion if updated schedules can’t be maintained and multiple vessels arrive at once. Possible impact on US West Coast.

Global schedule reliability decreased M/M in November 2023 by -2.5 percentage points to 61.9%. On a Y/Y level however, schedule reliability in November 2023 was 5.4 percentage points higher.CAPACITY
Due to the Red Sea crisis, with rerouting via Africa, major capacity shortfall ahead of Lunar New Year. However, a large rebound is expected immediately after. Empty container shortages expected as well.

Freight rates are rising sharply. Drewry WCI increased by 61% to USD 2670/40’ on week1/2024. 25% when compared with the same week last year. SCFI Index Shanghai – North Europe increased about 166% in two weeks

ETS in place since January 1st. Cost of ETS will increase due to re-routing via Africa. Bunker cost still trending down, with just $100 gap between VLSFO and LNG.

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