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The month of November shows that the collapse in global demand which had begun in earnest in September is not fading away. Global demand measured in TEU declined -9.5% in November on a year-on-year basis. Demand is down compared to 2019 levels.


Global port congestion keeps trending down. A surge in port congestion has been registered in China with highest level of vessels at anchor registered since September 2022. Port decongestion will release much of the 8-9% of the fleet still tied down at port anchorages.


The improvement trend continues in global schedule reliability data in November. At 57% the market remains substantially below the performance pre-Covid, however it is almost a doubling compared to the bottom in January 2022 when only 30% of vessels were on time.


According to Drewry, 149 canceled sailings have been announced between weeks 2 and week 6 of 2023, out of a total of 707 scheduled sailings, representing 21% cancellation rate. This represents an increase of 7% compared to our last measurement a few weeks ago.


On a general note, the Drewry East-West Freight Rate Index lost a staggering 24% to $2,190 per 40ft box in December. The decline in Transpacific and AsiaEurope trade drives the decrease in the index. Drewry expects rates to continue to fall as demand has collapsed and vessel utilization has hit new lows.


IFO380 and VLSFO are at the same levels as a month ago. The unpredictability of fuel prices and the implementation of IMO2023 regulations brought carriers to increase the ratio of vessels equipped with scrubbers.

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